{
  "report_id": "015-membership-lifecycle",
  "status": "validated",
  "version": "1.4",
  "publication": {
    "headline": "El centro típico conserva seis de cada diez cuotas durante 90 días",
    "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/",
    "date_modified": "2026-07-19",
    "articles": [
      {
        "id": "first-week",
        "path": "articles/primera-semana.html",
        "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/primera-semana/",
        "question": "¿Qué relación tiene la primera semana con la permanencia?"
      },
      {
        "id": "seasonality",
        "path": "articles/calendario-altas-bajas.html",
        "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/calendario-altas-bajas/",
        "question": "¿Cuándo se concentran los inicios y las bajas?"
      },
      {
        "id": "reactivations",
        "path": "articles/reactivaciones.html",
        "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/reactivaciones/",
        "question": "¿Cuánto tarda una persona en volver después de una pausa?"
      },
      {
        "id": "tariff-changes",
        "path": "articles/cambios-tarifa.html",
        "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/cambios-tarifa/",
        "question": "¿Con qué frecuencia cambia de tarifa una persona que renueva?"
      },
      {
        "id": "membership-pauses",
        "path": "articles/pausas-un-mes.html",
        "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/pausas-un-mes/",
        "question": "¿Con qué frecuencia una cuota salta un mes y después continúa?"
      },
      {
        "id": "retention-by-age",
        "path": "articles/permanencia-por-edad.html",
        "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/permanencia-por-edad/",
        "question": "¿Cómo cambia la permanencia de una cuota según la edad al inicio?"
      },
      {
        "id": "january-effect",
        "path": "articles/efecto-enero-permanencia.html",
        "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/efecto-enero/",
        "question": "¿Las altas de enero permanecen menos que las de otros meses?"
      },
      {
        "id": "reactivation-retention",
        "path": "articles/permanencia-reactivaciones.html",
        "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/permanencia-reactivaciones/",
        "question": "¿Dura igual una cuota reactivada que una primera alta?"
      },
      {
        "id": "second-month-retention",
        "path": "articles/segundo-mes.html",
        "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/permanencia-cuotas/segundo-mes/",
        "question": "¿En qué intervalo mensual se produce la mayor pérdida de cobertura?"
      }
    ]
  },
  "period": {
    "editorial_start": "2019-01-01",
    "end": "2026-07-15",
    "end_is_partial": true
  },
  "sample": {
    "tenants_attempted": 2174,
    "tenants_succeeded": 2174,
    "tenants_failed": 0,
    "centers_with_episodes": 2086,
    "eligible_payments": 10617378,
    "episodes": 1953378,
    "reactivation_episodes": 694758
  },
  "quality": {
    "source_payments": 11155222,
    "future_episodes_separated": 2063,
    "invalid_date_episodes_separated": 2000,
    "missing_end_episodes_separated": 19,
    "minimum_centers_per_public_group": 20,
    "minimum_observations_per_public_group": 500
  },
  "findings": {
    "typical_center_reaches_90_days_pct": 62.11,
    "typical_center_reaches_180_days_pct": 37.1,
    "typical_center_reaches_365_days_pct": 18.11,
    "no_first_week_reaches_90_days_pct": 58.64,
    "four_plus_first_week_reaches_90_days_pct": 75.51,
    "first_week_difference_pp": 16.87,
    "september_start_share_pct": 13.49,
    "january_start_share_pct": 7.2,
    "june_churn_share_pct": 10.06,
    "reactivated_within_2_3_months_pct": 59.61,
    "retention_age_gap_90_days_pp": 9.52,
    "retention_age_older_higher_centers_pct": 82.38
  },
  "series": {
    "retention_horizons": [
      {
        "days": 30,
        "centers": 2025,
        "episodes": 1918140,
        "median_pct": 98.8
      },
      {
        "days": 60,
        "centers": 2022,
        "episodes": 1881291,
        "median_pct": 74.29
      },
      {
        "days": 90,
        "centers": 2019,
        "episodes": 1847320,
        "median_pct": 62.11
      },
      {
        "days": 180,
        "centers": 2013,
        "episodes": 1731743,
        "median_pct": 37.1
      },
      {
        "days": 365,
        "centers": 1942,
        "episodes": 1467128,
        "median_pct": 18.11
      },
      {
        "days": 730,
        "centers": 1480,
        "episodes": 1017190,
        "median_pct": 7.84
      }
    ],
    "first_week": [
      {
        "band": "Ninguna",
        "centers": 2006,
        "episodes": 1223201,
        "reached_90_pct": 58.64
      },
      {
        "band": "Una",
        "centers": 1901,
        "episodes": 221512,
        "reached_90_pct": 62.34
      },
      {
        "band": "Dos",
        "centers": 1855,
        "episodes": 214354,
        "reached_90_pct": 68.89
      },
      {
        "band": "Tres",
        "centers": 1488,
        "episodes": 106699,
        "reached_90_pct": 73.33
      },
      {
        "band": "Cuatro o más",
        "centers": 1128,
        "episodes": 76284,
        "reached_90_pct": 75.51
      }
    ],
    "starts_by_calendar_month": [
      {
        "month": "Enero",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 7.2
      },
      {
        "month": "Febrero",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 7.74
      },
      {
        "month": "Marzo",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 7.08
      },
      {
        "month": "Abril",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 7.0
      },
      {
        "month": "Mayo",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 6.72
      },
      {
        "month": "Junio",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 7.05
      },
      {
        "month": "Julio",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 7.45
      },
      {
        "month": "Agosto",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 5.16
      },
      {
        "month": "Septiembre",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 13.49
      },
      {
        "month": "Octubre",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 10.89
      },
      {
        "month": "Noviembre",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 7.09
      },
      {
        "month": "Diciembre",
        "center_years": 6314,
        "centers": 1903,
        "median_share_pct": 4.66
      }
    ],
    "estimated_churn_by_calendar_month": [
      {
        "month": "Enero",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 5.0
      },
      {
        "month": "Febrero",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 6.06
      },
      {
        "month": "Marzo",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 6.85
      },
      {
        "month": "Abril",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 7.14
      },
      {
        "month": "Mayo",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 7.87
      },
      {
        "month": "Junio",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 10.06
      },
      {
        "month": "Julio",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 9.38
      },
      {
        "month": "Agosto",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 7.46
      },
      {
        "month": "Septiembre",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 8.0
      },
      {
        "month": "Octubre",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 8.96
      },
      {
        "month": "Noviembre",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 9.09
      },
      {
        "month": "Diciembre",
        "center_years": 6079,
        "centers": 1857,
        "median_share_pct": 8.42
      }
    ],
    "reactivation_gaps": [
      {
        "gap": "2–3 meses",
        "centers": 1974,
        "episodes": 414142
      },
      {
        "gap": "4–6 meses",
        "centers": 1945,
        "episodes": 126418
      },
      {
        "gap": "7–12 meses",
        "centers": 1869,
        "episodes": 93063
      },
      {
        "gap": "13 meses o más",
        "centers": 1600,
        "episodes": 61135
      }
    ],
    "tariff_change_by_payment_band": [
      {
        "band": "2 pagos",
        "episodes": 299962,
        "episodes_with_change": 60710,
        "episodes_with_change_pct": 20.24
      },
      {
        "band": "3–5 pagos",
        "episodes": 401460,
        "episodes_with_change": 134739,
        "episodes_with_change_pct": 33.56
      },
      {
        "band": "6–11 pagos",
        "episodes": 307320,
        "episodes_with_change": 151623,
        "episodes_with_change_pct": 49.34
      },
      {
        "band": "12–23 pagos",
        "episodes": 150374,
        "episodes_with_change": 100835,
        "episodes_with_change_pct": 67.06
      },
      {
        "band": "24 pagos o más",
        "episodes": 77228,
        "episodes_with_change": 59587,
        "episodes_with_change_pct": 77.16
      }
    ]
  },
  "tariff_changes": {
    "recurring_episodes": 1236344,
    "total_changes": 1250248,
    "eligible_centers": 1934,
    "median_center_episodes_with_change_pct": 39.81,
    "center_p25_pct": 28.43,
    "center_p75_pct": 50.81,
    "median_changes_per_100_renewals": 12.57,
    "upgrade_share_of_comparable_changes_pct": 53.11,
    "downgrade_share_of_comparable_changes_pct": 46.89,
    "ambiguous_direction_share_pct": 28.35,
    "max_center_share_of_eligible_changes_pct": 0.77
  },
  "retention_by_age": {
    "definition": "Edad al inicio del episodio y proporción de episodios que mantiene cobertura durante al menos 90, 180 o 365 días.",
    "tenants_attempted": 2174,
    "tenants_succeeded": 2174,
    "tenants_failed": 0,
    "eligible_centers": 930,
    "eligible_episodes": 1157989,
    "known_age_episodes": 733802,
    "minimum_center_episodes": 100,
    "minimum_age_coverage_pct": 50,
    "minimum_observable_episodes_per_band": 20,
    "age_band_episode_counts": {
      "Menores de 25": 116925,
      "25–34": 299154,
      "35–44": 208928,
      "45 o más": 108795
    },
    "median_retention_by_age": [
      {
        "age_band": "Menores de 25",
        "90": 62.07,
        "180": 35.62,
        "365": 14.93
      },
      {
        "age_band": "25–34",
        "90": 66.75,
        "180": 40.1,
        "365": 21.31
      },
      {
        "age_band": "35–44",
        "90": 69.51,
        "180": 43.14,
        "365": 24.12
      },
      {
        "age_band": "45 o más",
        "90": 72.7,
        "180": 45.91,
        "365": 26.76
      }
    ],
    "paired_under_25_vs_45_plus": {
      "90": {
        "centers": 766,
        "median_gap_pp": 9.52,
        "older_higher_centers_pct": 82.38
      },
      "180": {
        "centers": 747,
        "median_gap_pp": 9.52,
        "older_higher_centers_pct": 80.59
      },
      "365": {
        "centers": 684,
        "median_gap_pp": 9.44,
        "older_higher_centers_pct": 86.99
      }
    },
    "sensitivity_minimum_50": {
      "90": {
        "centers": 493,
        "median_gap_pp": 10.47,
        "older_higher_centers_pct": 88.03
      },
      "180": {
        "centers": 469,
        "median_gap_pp": 9.49,
        "older_higher_centers_pct": 84.01
      },
      "365": {
        "centers": 410,
        "median_gap_pp": 9.06,
        "older_higher_centers_pct": 90.24
      }
    },
    "limitations": [
      "La edad se fija al inicio del episodio y su cobertura puede no ser aleatoria.",
      "La relación es descriptiva: producto, precio, actividad, experiencia y situación laboral pueden actuar como factores de confusión.",
      "La unidad es el episodio de cuota, no una persona única; una persona puede aportar más de un episodio.",
      "Solo entran cohortes con tiempo suficiente para observar cada horizonte."
    ]
  },
  "privacy": {
    "personal_identifiers_exported": false,
    "center_identifiers_exported": false
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Una baja es una inferencia tras 60 días sin nueva cobertura, no una baja contractual registrada.",
    "La muestra incluye centros activos que usan WodBuster y no es un censo de todo el mercado.",
    "La relación entre asistencia inicial y permanencia es descriptiva y no demuestra causalidad.",
    "El año 2026 está incompleto y se excluye de las comparaciones anuales de estacionalidad."
  ],
  "membership_pauses": {
    "definition": "Un mes sin cuota pagada entre dos meses pagados del mismo ciclo; dos o más meses consecutivos abren un ciclo nuevo.",
    "recurring_episodes": 1236344,
    "centers": 2035,
    "episodes_with_pause": 410210,
    "overall_episode_pause_pct": 33.18,
    "median_center_episode_pause_pct": 32.23,
    "center_p25_pct": 25.73,
    "center_p75_pct": 39.12,
    "median_pauses_per_100_renewals": 7.05,
    "episodes_one_pause_pct": 22.82,
    "episodes_multiple_pauses_pct": 10.36,
    "by_payment_count": [
      {
        "band": "2 pagos",
        "episodes": 299962,
        "episodes_with_pause": 39544,
        "episodes_with_pause_pct": 13.18
      },
      {
        "band": "3–5 pagos",
        "episodes": 401460,
        "episodes_with_pause": 105203,
        "episodes_with_pause_pct": 26.21
      },
      {
        "band": "6–11 pagos",
        "episodes": 307320,
        "episodes_with_pause": 124108,
        "episodes_with_pause_pct": 40.38
      },
      {
        "band": "12–23 pagos",
        "episodes": 150374,
        "episodes_with_pause": 88643,
        "episodes_with_pause_pct": 58.95
      },
      {
        "band": "24 pagos o más",
        "episodes": 77228,
        "episodes_with_pause": 52712,
        "episodes_with_pause_pct": 68.26
      }
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "Una pausa solo se observa cuando existe un pago posterior; no cuenta interrupciones que terminan definitivamente.",
      "Los ciclos largos acumulan más oportunidades de contener una pausa.",
      "La fecha final de 2026 es parcial y no se utiliza para una tendencia anual."
    ]
  },
  "january_effect": {
    "definition": "Permanencia de episodios iniciales observados según el mes de comienzo, equilibrada por centro.",
    "cohort_period": "2019-01-01/2024-12-31",
    "eligible_episodes": 796009,
    "eligible_center_month_rows": 14391,
    "minimum_episodes_per_center_month": 10,
    "monthly": [
      {
        "month": "Enero",
        "centers": 1074,
        "episodes": 51287,
        "retention_90_pct": 64.29,
        "retention_180_pct": 37.35,
        "retention_365_pct": 17.24
      },
      {
        "month": "Febrero",
        "centers": 1113,
        "episodes": 56634,
        "retention_90_pct": 57.89,
        "retention_180_pct": 30.0,
        "retention_365_pct": 15.36
      },
      {
        "month": "Marzo",
        "centers": 1104,
        "episodes": 56265,
        "retention_90_pct": 60.84,
        "retention_180_pct": 28.57,
        "retention_365_pct": 16.67
      },
      {
        "month": "Abril",
        "centers": 1148,
        "episodes": 68295,
        "retention_90_pct": 63.26,
        "retention_180_pct": 33.33,
        "retention_365_pct": 18.22
      },
      {
        "month": "Mayo",
        "centers": 1151,
        "episodes": 59878,
        "retention_90_pct": 53.12,
        "retention_180_pct": 30.43,
        "retention_365_pct": 16.13
      },
      {
        "month": "Junio",
        "centers": 1163,
        "episodes": 63495,
        "retention_90_pct": 51.72,
        "retention_180_pct": 30.77,
        "retention_365_pct": 16.0
      },
      {
        "month": "Julio",
        "centers": 1174,
        "episodes": 69093,
        "retention_90_pct": 48.76,
        "retention_180_pct": 28.57,
        "retention_365_pct": 15.58
      },
      {
        "month": "Agosto",
        "centers": 1003,
        "episodes": 50292,
        "retention_90_pct": 51.4,
        "retention_180_pct": 30.77,
        "retention_365_pct": 15.79
      },
      {
        "month": "Septiembre",
        "centers": 1415,
        "episodes": 106416,
        "retention_90_pct": 66.67,
        "retention_180_pct": 42.86,
        "retention_365_pct": 18.18
      },
      {
        "month": "Octubre",
        "centers": 1464,
        "episodes": 100702,
        "retention_90_pct": 61.42,
        "retention_180_pct": 40.58,
        "retention_365_pct": 16.67
      },
      {
        "month": "Noviembre",
        "centers": 1394,
        "episodes": 70312,
        "retention_90_pct": 59.63,
        "retention_180_pct": 37.7,
        "retention_365_pct": 16.13
      },
      {
        "month": "Diciembre",
        "centers": 1188,
        "episodes": 43340,
        "retention_90_pct": 59.89,
        "retention_180_pct": 35.29,
        "retention_365_pct": 15.79
      }
    ],
    "paired_january_september": {
      "centers": 1038,
      "difference_90_pp": 0.0,
      "difference_180_pp": 3.32,
      "difference_365_pp": 0.61,
      "september_higher_centers_90_pct": 49.13
    },
    "paired_january_july": {
      "centers": 965,
      "difference_90_pp": -15.02,
      "difference_180_pp": -8.59,
      "difference_365_pp": -1.67
    },
    "recent_2022_2024": {
      "paired_centers": 1003,
      "september_minus_january_90_pp": -0.46,
      "september_minus_january_180_pp": 2.02,
      "september_minus_january_365_pp": 0.0
    },
    "limitations": [
      "La permanencia es cobertura reconstruida desde pagos y no una baja contractual registrada.",
      "El calendario se asocia con la permanencia, pero no demuestra causalidad.",
      "Se excluyen reactivaciones y solo se utilizan cohortes con los tres horizontes observables."
    ]
  },
  "reactivation_retention": {
    "definitions": {
      "first_episode": "Primer ciclo de cuota observado de una persona en el centro.",
      "reactivation": "Nuevo ciclo tras una interrupción suficiente para cerrar el anterior.",
      "retention": "Proporción de ciclos con horizonte completo que alcanza 90, 180 o 365 días de cobertura.",
      "paired_center_comparison": "Se comparan primera alta y reactivación dentro del mismo centro; cada negocio pesa una vez."
    },
    "rules": {
      "earliest_start": "2019-01-01",
      "horizon_minimums": {
        "90": 30,
        "180": 20,
        "365": 10
      },
      "minimum_per_adjusted_stratum": 5,
      "minimum_per_gap_band": 10
    },
    "within_center_horizons": [
      {
        "horizon_days": 90,
        "minimum_episodes_per_path_and_center": 30,
        "paired_centers": 1687,
        "first_episodes": 1152240,
        "reactivation_episodes": 644636,
        "median_first_retention_pct": 59.95,
        "median_reactivation_retention_pct": 63.72,
        "median_within_center_difference_pp": 4.0,
        "bootstrap_95_ci_difference_pp": [
          3.47,
          4.48
        ],
        "centers_where_reactivation_higher_pct": 68.11,
        "largest_center_reactivation_share_pct": 0.83
      },
      {
        "horizon_days": 180,
        "minimum_episodes_per_path_and_center": 20,
        "paired_centers": 1704,
        "first_episodes": 1094746,
        "reactivation_episodes": 596698,
        "median_first_retention_pct": 36.58,
        "median_reactivation_retention_pct": 35.71,
        "median_within_center_difference_pp": -0.14,
        "bootstrap_95_ci_difference_pp": [
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        "gap_band": "02_2_3_MONTHS",
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      {
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      {
        "gap_band": "04_7_12_MONTHS",
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    ],
    "limitations": [
      "Quien vuelve ya ha mostrado una relación previa con el centro y no es comparable individualmente con una primera alta.",
      "El cruce dentro del centro reduce diferencias de negocio, pero no controla edad, motivo de baja, oferta o cambios personales.",
      "La actividad de primera semana se controla por bandas agregadas y no convierte la asociación en causal.",
      "La fecha de inicio se aproxima al mes al que corresponde el primer pago del ciclo."
    ]
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      "conditional_loss": "Entre episodios que alcanzan el inicio del intervalo, proporción que no alcanza su final.",
      "center_balancing": "Cada centro elegible pesa una vez mediante su proporción interna."
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          "centers": 1568,
          "episodes": 589158,
          "median_center_retention_pct": 42.51
        },
        {
          "days": 180,
          "centers": 1568,
          "episodes": 589158,
          "median_center_retention_pct": 36.87
        },
        {
          "days": 270,
          "centers": 1568,
          "episodes": 589158,
          "median_center_retention_pct": 26.13
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "centers": 1568,
          "episodes": 589158,
          "median_center_retention_pct": 19.01
        }
      ],
      "conditional_losses": [
        {
          "from_days": 30,
          "to_days": 60,
          "centers": 1567,
          "conditional_loss_pct": {
            "p25": 18.32,
            "median": 25.3,
            "p75": 32.97
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_pct": [
            24.6,
            26.05
          ]
        },
        {
          "from_days": 60,
          "to_days": 90,
          "centers": 1499,
          "conditional_loss_pct": {
            "p25": 12.66,
            "median": 16.78,
            "p75": 21.19
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_pct": [
            16.42,
            17.34
          ]
        },
        {
          "from_days": 90,
          "to_days": 120,
          "centers": 1462,
          "conditional_loss_pct": {
            "p25": 11.76,
            "median": 15.91,
            "p75": 20.64
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_pct": [
            15.48,
            16.39
          ]
        },
        {
          "from_days": 120,
          "to_days": 150,
          "centers": 1412,
          "conditional_loss_pct": {
            "p25": 10.0,
            "median": 13.45,
            "p75": 17.45
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_pct": [
            13.16,
            13.73
          ]
        },
        {
          "from_days": 150,
          "to_days": 180,
          "centers": 1352,
          "conditional_loss_pct": {
            "p25": 8.33,
            "median": 11.54,
            "p75": 15.3
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_pct": [
            11.14,
            11.86
          ]
        },
        {
          "from_days": 180,
          "to_days": 270,
          "centers": 1289,
          "conditional_loss_pct": {
            "p25": 21.9,
            "median": 27.27,
            "p75": 34.21
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_pct": [
            26.89,
            27.78
          ]
        },
        {
          "from_days": 270,
          "to_days": 365,
          "centers": 1080,
          "conditional_loss_pct": {
            "p25": 18.52,
            "median": 23.45,
            "p75": 30.0
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_pct": [
            22.86,
            24.24
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "quality": {
      "all_source_tenants_succeeded": true,
      "largest_center_episode_share_pct": 0.7,
      "center_balanced_primary": true,
      "personal_or_center_identifiers_exported": false
    },
    "limitations": [
      "La cobertura se reconstruye desde pagos y fechas de vigencia; no es una baja contractual registrada.",
      "Algunas cuotas cubren varios meses con un pago, por lo que el intervalo de 30 a 60 días no equivale siempre a una renovación mensual.",
      "El primer ciclo observado puede no ser la primera relación histórica si comenzó antes de la cobertura disponible.",
      "La comparación entre intervalos es descriptiva; no demuestra que una acción en el primer mes evite la baja."
    ]
  }
}