{
  "report_id": "109-return-calendar",
  "status": "validated",
  "version": "1.0",
  "publication": {
    "headline": "La continuidad de julio a agosto queda 15,3 puntos por debajo de febrero a marzo",
    "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/calendario-continuidad-mensual/",
    "date_modified": "2026-07-18"
  },
  "period": "2025-01-01/2025-11-30",
  "definition": {
    "outcome_month": "Mes con actividad desde el que se observa la vuelta al siguiente mes natural.",
    "return": "Al menos una asistencia en el mes natural siguiente.",
    "adjustment": "Mismo centro, frecuencia exacta y dos medidas de distribución temporal.",
    "july_to_august": "Meses-persona activos en julio que registran o no actividad en agosto.",
    "february_to_march": "Meses-persona activos en febrero que registran o no actividad en marzo."
  },
  "rules": {
    "minimum_participant_months_per_center": 100,
    "exact_frequency_range": "4–12",
    "minimum_valid_cells_per_center": 3,
    "primary_minimum_per_month_group": 3
  },
  "sample": {
    "tenants_attempted": 2174,
    "tenants_succeeded": 2174,
    "tenants_failed": 0,
    "centers_with_activity": 2159,
    "participant_months": 3519632,
    "eligible_centers": 2128
  },
  "raw_calendar": [
    {
      "outcome_month": 1,
      "centers": 1778,
      "participant_months": 290364,
      "median_center_return_pct": 88.64
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 2,
      "centers": 1844,
      "participant_months": 306916,
      "median_center_return_pct": 89.02
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 3,
      "centers": 1873,
      "participant_months": 316281,
      "median_center_return_pct": 88.62
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 4,
      "centers": 1900,
      "participant_months": 321806,
      "median_center_return_pct": 87.18
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 5,
      "centers": 1934,
      "participant_months": 321395,
      "median_center_return_pct": 86.59
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 6,
      "centers": 1962,
      "participant_months": 319248,
      "median_center_return_pct": 80.0
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 7,
      "centers": 1942,
      "participant_months": 303365,
      "median_center_return_pct": 72.81
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 8,
      "centers": 1746,
      "participant_months": 254038,
      "median_center_return_pct": 84.85
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 9,
      "centers": 2037,
      "participant_months": 344317,
      "median_center_return_pct": 87.74
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 10,
      "centers": 2054,
      "participant_months": 362648,
      "median_center_return_pct": 87.1
    },
    {
      "outcome_month": 11,
      "centers": 2049,
      "participant_months": 356540,
      "median_center_return_pct": 85.59
    }
  ],
  "primary": {
    "first_month": 2,
    "second_month": 7,
    "minimum_per_month_group": 3,
    "centers": 1565,
    "median_second_minus_first_pp": -15.34,
    "centers_second_higher_pct": 4.03,
    "median_valid_cells": 8,
    "bootstrap_95_ci": [
      -16.29,
      -14.73
    ]
  },
  "operational_pairs": [
    {
      "first_month": 1,
      "second_month": 2,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 3,
      "centers": 1601,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": 0.0,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 49.47,
      "median_valid_cells": 8,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        0.0,
        0.18
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 6,
      "second_month": 7,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 3,
      "centers": 1682,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": -8.26,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 18.25,
      "median_valid_cells": 8.0,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        -8.8,
        -7.68
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 7,
      "second_month": 8,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 3,
      "centers": 1304,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": 9.47,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 80.52,
      "median_valid_cells": 8.0,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        8.52,
        10.02
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 8,
      "second_month": 9,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 3,
      "centers": 1349,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": 1.21,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 57.08,
      "median_valid_cells": 8,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        0.6,
        1.73
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 10,
      "second_month": 11,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 3,
      "centers": 1863,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": -0.39,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 45.57,
      "median_valid_cells": 8,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        -0.57,
        -0.05
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sensitivities_february_july": [
    {
      "first_month": 2,
      "second_month": 7,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 2,
      "centers": 1727,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": -16.22,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 3.76,
      "median_valid_cells": 10,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        -17.05,
        -15.34
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 2,
      "second_month": 7,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 3,
      "centers": 1565,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": -15.34,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 4.03,
      "median_valid_cells": 8,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        -16.29,
        -14.73
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 2,
      "second_month": 7,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 5,
      "centers": 1196,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": -14.25,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 4.43,
      "median_valid_cells": 6.0,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        -15.02,
        -13.52
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sensitivities_june_july": [
    {
      "first_month": 6,
      "second_month": 7,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 2,
      "centers": 1855,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": -8.65,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 17.68,
      "median_valid_cells": 10,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        -9.28,
        -8.13
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 6,
      "second_month": 7,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 3,
      "centers": 1682,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": -8.26,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 18.25,
      "median_valid_cells": 8.0,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        -8.8,
        -7.68
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 6,
      "second_month": 7,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 5,
      "centers": 1301,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": -7.83,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 18.99,
      "median_valid_cells": 6,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        -8.47,
        -6.98
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sensitivities_july_august": [
    {
      "first_month": 7,
      "second_month": 8,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 2,
      "centers": 1530,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": 10.36,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 81.11,
      "median_valid_cells": 10.0,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        9.51,
        11.13
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 7,
      "second_month": 8,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 3,
      "centers": 1304,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": 9.47,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 80.52,
      "median_valid_cells": 8.0,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        8.52,
        10.02
      ]
    },
    {
      "first_month": 7,
      "second_month": 8,
      "minimum_per_month_group": 5,
      "centers": 901,
      "median_second_minus_first_pp": 7.05,
      "centers_second_higher_pct": 75.8,
      "median_valid_cells": 6,
      "bootstrap_95_ci": [
        6.29,
        7.76
      ]
    }
  ],
  "quality": {
    "largest_center_share_pct": 0.55,
    "all_tenants_succeeded": true,
    "personal_identifiers_extracted": false,
    "class_identifiers_extracted": false,
    "each_center_weights_once": true
  },
  "limitations": [
    "El calendario compara cohortes mensuales distintas y no demuestra que el mes cause la diferencia.",
    "Quienes mantienen actividad en agosto pueden ser una selección especialmente comprometida.",
    "El ajuste iguala centro, frecuencia y distribución temporal, pero no edad, antigüedad, tarifa, actividad o vacaciones.",
    "Volver al mes siguiente no equivale a renovar una cuota ni a permanencia de largo plazo."
  ]
}